Colorado State University experts in a new forecast Tuesday afternoon predicted that there will be a normal amount of hurricane activity in the Atlantic in the next two weeks, though they still believe overall the season will be “an extremely active one.”
CSU’s experts said the environment of the Atlantic toward the end of August will be more favorable for tropical cyclones to form.
There are not currently any tropical cyclones in the Atlantic or areas that forecasters are monitoring for development within the next week.
There’s a 55% chance that there will be normal Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Atlantic between Tuesday and Sept. 2, the university said in its update. Accumulated Cyclone Energy refers to the combined intensity and duration of storms and hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
CSU’s forecast is based on several factors, including the current lack of activity and some global models that show tropical cyclone formation in the eastern and central Atlantic and the Caribbean in the next eight to 14 days, some of which are “aggressive with intensification,” the report said.
Wind shear is expected to be below normal over the next two weeks, which is ideal for hurricanes to form, coupled with “an extremely warm Atlantic,” according to the report. A decrease in wind shear would favor hurricane activity, particularly in the second week.
The report said the “primary threat” for where major hurricanes form in late August is in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
“The most recent seasonal forecast calls for well above-average season,” forecasters said in the report. “We still believe that this forecast will verify, but we are anticipating a brief break after Ernesto that will likely give us normal tropical cyclone activity for the next two weeks.”
Experts stick with an ‘extremely active’ forecast for the rest of the 2024 hurricane season
Hurricane Ernesto was downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone Tuesday and is expected to dissipate on Wednesday. Tens of thousands of people in Puerto Rico are still without power a week after Ernesto reached the island as a tropical storm, the Associated Press reported.
AccuWeather experts also expect a brief pause in activity in the Atlantic after Ernesto, but said in a statement Friday they are forecasting “the tropics to shift into high gear by the end of August.”
Overall, CSU experts predict 23 named storms in the 2024 season, leaving the possibility of 18 more before the season ends on Nov. 30. The average number of named storms between 1991 to 2020 is 14.4.
The “remarkably active” Atlantic is due to hot sea surface temperatures, decreased wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and a strengthened west African monsoon, according to NOAA.
“These conditions are expected to continue into the fall,” NOAA said in its Aug. 8 forecast. “Of note, the dry Saharan air that prevented tropical storm development during portions of the middle of the summer is expected to subside in August.”
This season has already broken records: Hurricane Beryl, which formed in July, became the earliest Category 5 hurricane to form in the Atlantic basin on record.
Hurricane Debby made landfall as a Category 1 storm along Florida’s Big Bend region on the Gulf Coast, contributing to at least five deaths, the Associated Press reported.
CSU experts will release their next two-week forecast on Sept. 3.