The National Hurricane Center is now tracking two Atlantic systems with a chance to develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.
As of the NHC’s 2 p.m. tropical outlook Wednesday, the bigger threat to Florida remained what has become a tropical wave that has formed in the central tropical Atlantic.
“Some slow development of this system is possible this weekend into early next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,” forecasters said.
Its long-term forecast has the weather system potentially passing over the Caribbean’s Leeward Islands.
The NHC gives it a 20% chance to develop in the next seven days.
8pm EDT 26th August — NHC is monitoring the central Tropical Atlantic where an area of low pressure could form over the next few days. This system has a low chance (20%
) of TC formation over the next 7 days.
Latest Outlook: https://t.co/DboWSR4Ct1 pic.twitter.com/xKYrUqRjWi
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 26, 2024
) of TC formation over the next 7 days. The NHC also began tracking an area of low pressure in the western Atlantic early Wednesday located a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda that was producing a small area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
“Dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent development of this system while the low moves generally north-northeastward at about 10 mph during the next day or so,” forecasters said.
The NHC had earlier Wednesday given it just a 10% chance to develop, but by the afternoon had dropped those chances to 0%.
The next named storm for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season would be Tropical Storm Francine.
The tropics had been quiet for a couple of weeks since Hurricane Ernesto carved a path over the Caribbean and up over Bermuda earlier in August.
While the official hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30, the height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October. So far the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has produced five named storms, three of which formed into hurricanes, and one of which became a major hurricane.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s upgraded forecast issued earlier this month calls for 17-24 named storms, of which 8-13 could become hurricanes, with 4-7 that could develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.