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Hurricane center tracks newly formed Tropical Storm Joyce, 2 other systems on top of post-tropical Helene, Hurricane Isaac

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The National Hurricane Center continued to keeps its focus Friday on what had been Category 4 major Hurricane Helene as it moved inland and became post-tropical, but also was keeping tabs on newly formed Tropical Storm Joyce and Hurricane Isaac in the Atlantic and two more systems with a chance to develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

As of 5 p.m., what the NHC was calling Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene, which had made landfall on Florida’s Big Bend near Perry at around 11:10 p.m. Thursday, had sustained winds of 35 mph as it moved north-northwest at 17 mph located about 50 miles south-southeast of Louisville, Kentucky.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene cone of uncertainty as of 5 p.m. Friday, Sept. 27, 2024. (NHC)
Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene cone of uncertainty as of 5 p.m. Friday, Sept. 27, 2024. (NHC)

“A slowdown in forward speed is expected, and the system is forecast to stall over the Tennessee Valley late tonight and through the weekend,” forecasters said. “Continued weakening is expected during the next couple of days.”

The massive amounts of rain still being dropped by the system, though, were a continued threat.

“Over portions of the central and southern Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches leading to widespread total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals exceeding 20 inches,” forecasters said. “This rainfall will
result in catastrophic and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with record level river flooding in many instances.”

Landslides could be possible across the steep terrain of the southern Appalachians. Another 1-3 inches are expected through Sunday across the Ohio valley.

Hurricane Helene wreaks damage, flooding across Florida

Florida, meanwhile, was cleaning up from the massive storm surge and damaging winds that plagued the Gulf Coast.

Reports of at least 41 people dead in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina have come in during Friday updates.

The system left at least seven people dead in Florida — one when a driver on Interstate 4 was struck by a falling overhead sign near Ybor City and a second in Dixie County when a tree fell on a house, according to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Another five were reported dead in Pinellas County, according to Cathie Perkins, the state’s emergency management director, including two in Treasure Island, two in Indian Rocks Beach and one in Dunedin.

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp announced at least 15 deaths in the state including one first responder. At least 17 people were killed by the winds and rains, South Carolina authorities said. Two deaths were reported in North Carolina.

More than 750,000 customers in Florida were still without power as of 4:30 p.m., but more than 4.6 million from Florida up to Ohio, according to poweroutage.us.

Video and images of the destruction especially along the Gulf Coast revealed the devastation realized the night before.

Storm surge plagued Gulf Coast counties from southwest Florida up into the Panhandle with nearly 8 feet over normal levels reported in Cedar Key near landfall to the north.

Scenes from Pinellas, Sarasota, Manatee and Hillsborough County farther south showed boats slammed up against homes, roads and cars buried under feet of sand.

Others remained under water still receding.

Colorado State University meteorologist Philip Klotzbach said that with 140 mph winds and stronger gusts, the landfall of Hurricane Helene marked the most powerful hurricane to hit the region since records were kept beginning in 1851.

“The old record was the Cedar Keys Hurricane (1896) with max winds of 125 mph,” he posted on X.

Ahead of landfall, the NHC had warned of storm surge along the Big Bend that could reach at least 20 feet high while lower but still dangerous levels were forecast all the way down the Gulf Coast to Naples.

Hurricane Isaac cone of uncertainty as of 5 p.m. Friday, Sept. 27, 2024. (NHC)
Hurricane Isaac cone of uncertainty as of 5 p.m. Friday, Sept. 27, 2024. (NHC)

Meanwhile in the Atlantic, the season saw its sixth hurricane develop with the formation of Hurricane Isaac and formation of the season’s 10th named storm with Tropical Storm Joyce.

As of 5 p.m. Friday, Hurricane Isaac was located about 995 miles west of the Azores with 85 mph sustained winds moving east at 16 mph.

“A gradual turn to the east-northeast is expected with a slight decrease in forward speed over the next day or so. On Saturday, a gradual turn to the northeast is forecast and this motion should continue through Monday,” forecasters said. “Some slight additional strengthening is expected tonight or Saturday morning followed by gradual weakening through early next week. Isaac is expected to be a post-tropical cyclone on Monday.”

Hurricane-force winds extend out 15 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center, but for now it is no threat to land.

Tropical Storm Joyce cone of uncertainty as of 5 p.m. Friday, Sept. 27, 2024. (NHC)
5Tropical Storm Joyce cone of uncertainty as of 5 p.m. Friday, Sept. 27, 2024. (NHC)

Tropical Storm Joyce developed in the central Atlantic about midway between the Cape Verde Islands and Caribbean’s Lesser Antilles.

As of 5 p.m., Joyce had sustained winds of 50 mph as it moved northwest at 13 mph located about 1,250 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Tropical-storm-force winds extend out 70 miles from its center.

It’s no threat to land and is expected to slow its forward speed through Sunday and turn to the north in the open ocean.

“Some additional strengthening is possible through early Saturday, followed by gradual weakening through early next week,” forecasters said.

And the NHC was keeping two other systems in the Atlantic and Caribbean with a chance to become the next season’s tropical depression or storm.

As of the NHC’s 8 p.m. tropical outlook, one is a forecast area of low pressure that could form over the western Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week.

“Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development thereafter while the system moves generally northwestward, likely entering the Gulf of Mexico by the end of next week,” forecasters said.

The NHC said it had a 30% chance to develop in the next seven days.

And new on Friday, the NHC also began forecasting a broad and elongated area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, to form over the eastern tropical Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week. The system is producing limited shower activity near and to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands.

“Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form next week while moving toward the west and then northwest at about 10 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said.

The NHC gave it a 10% chance to develop in the next 2 days and a 40% chance to develop in the next seven.

After Joyce, the next names on the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season list are Kirk and Leslie.

The season so far has produced 10 named storms including hurricanes Beryl, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Helene and Isaac.

Four of those — Beryl, Debby, Francine and Helene — all hit the U.S. Gulf Coast, something that has happened only in five other years since 1851 — 1886, 1909, 1985, 2005 and 2020, according to Klotzbach.

Both Debby and Helene struck Florida within just eight weeks of one another near the same area struck by Hurricane Idalia in 2023, all within about 15 miles of one another.

Helene also became the ninth most powerful hurricane to hit Florida since 1900 with a pressure recorded at 938 mb at landfall, Klotzbach said.

2018’s Category 5 Hurricane Michael that hit Florida’s Panhandle had been the strongest in recent Florida history with 919 mb pressure. The 1935 Labor day hurricane remains the strongest on record at 892 mb.

Helene’s landfall as a major hurricane marks the fifth year in a row that at least one major hurricane has made a U.S. landfall, Klotzbach said. Hurricanes Laura and Zeta struck in 2020, Ida in 2021, Ian in 2022 and Idalia in 2023.

 

 

 

 

 


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