As Hurricane Kirk gained strength and Tropical Depression Thirteen formed Wednesday but were no threat to land in the Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center was keeping track of system that could develop in the Gulf of Mexico and turn toward Florida.
As of the NHC’s 8 p.m. tropical outlook, the system that could mean at least heavy rains for Florida next week was for now a broad trough of low pressure with a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms running from the southwestern Caribbean Sea up into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
“Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend while the system drifts eastward,” forecasters said. “Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula by the weekend.”
The NHC gives it a 30% chance of development in the next seven days, a slight decrease from earlier in the day.
The National Weather Service in Melbourne expects some impact in Florida by early next week.
“There continues to be a large amount of inconsistencies in the global models and ensemble guidance especially into early next week,” said NWS meteorologist Kole Fehling as of his 4 a.m. EDT forecast for east Central Florida. “However, global models have trended towards better agreement with the most recent guidance.”
He puts 50%-70% chance for heavy rainfall from Sunday into early next week.
Meanwhile in the Atlantic, an area of low pressure developed into Tropical Depression Thirteen a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands with more organized showers and thunderstorms.
As of 5 p.m., the center of TD 13 was located 465 miles southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands moving west at 7 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.
It could become Tropical Storm Leslie by Wednesday night or Thursday.
“Strengthening is forecast during the next several days and the depression could become a hurricane by the end of the week,” forecasters said.
Already spinning in the Atlantic is Hurricane Kirk.
As of the NHC’s 5 p.m. advisory, Kirk was located about 1,330 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands and 1,165 miles east-northeast of the Caribbean’s Lesser Antilles moving northwest at 12 mph with sustained winds of 90 mph, which keeps it a Category 1 hurricane.
Hurricane-force winds extend out 35 miles and tropical-force-storm winds extend out 220 miles from its center.
“Strengthening is forecast over the next several days and Kirk is expected to become a major hurricane tomorrow,” forecasters said.
Through 1 October, the Atlantic #hurricane season is slightly above average for named storms & hurricanes and slightly below average for all other parameters forecast by Colorado State University. #Kirk likely to help increase day parameters relative to normal over next few days. pic.twitter.com/Sw5Bfb7XrK
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) October 2, 2024
If it does, it would become the third major hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season after Beryl and Helene.
The season, which runs from June 1-Nov. 30, has so far produced 12 official storms including six hurricanes, four tropical storms and a tropical depression as well as one potential tropical cyclone that did not form before making landfall.
After Leslie, the next name on the list is Milton.