The National Hurricane Center increased its prediction the season’s next tropical depression or storm would form in the Gulf of Mexico, but Florida is likely to get heavy rain next week whether it develops or not.
As of the NHC’s 8 p.m. tropical outlook, a trough of low pressure located over portions of the Gulf with a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is likely to form into a broad area of low pressure this weekend.
“Gradual development is possible after the low develops, and a tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form during the early or middle portions of next week while the low moves slowly eastward,” forecasters said. “Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula from late this weekend into next week.”
The NHC again increased the chances to 40% that it could develop in the next seven days after reducing it to 30% earlier Thursday.
Meteorologist Brendan Schaper with the National Weather Service in Melbourne said the Florida peninsula is likely to see deep moisture.
“This will result in more cloud cover, higher coverage of rain, and a few lightning storms,” he said. “Instability does not appear as impressive through the extended period … However, the threat of heavy rain and instances of localized flooding are expected to increase next week.”
The Weather Prediction Center has put Central and South Florida in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Monday.
Heavy rain could continue into Tuesday and beyond.
The NHC is also tracking Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie in the Atlantic, but they are not a direct threat to land, although swells from Kirk could reach the U.S. east coast by Sunday with heavy surf and rip currents.
As of 5 p.m., Kirk was located about 1,085 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands moving northwest at 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds increased to 130 mph, making it a Category 4 storm and the season’s third major hurricane.
Hurricane-force winds extend out up to 35 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extend out up to 185 miles from its center.
“A turn toward the north and north-northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast over the weekend,” forecasters said. “Kirk is a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast the next day or so.”
As of 5 p.m., Leslie was located about 580 miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands moving west at 6 mph with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend out up to 45 miles from its center.
“A slow westward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a slightly faster west-northwestward motion Friday through Saturday,” forecasters said. “Steady strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday.”
#Leslie has formed in the far eastern tropical Atlantic – the 12th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic #hurricane season and the 5th named storm formation since 24 September (#Helene, #Isaac, #Joyce, #Kirk). That's the most on record between 24 Sep – 2 Oct. Prior record was 3. pic.twitter.com/vPQFpogfYX
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) October 3, 2024
The season so far has 12 named storms including seven hurricanes and five tropical storms.
The season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.