In 2004, the forecast cone of uncertainty was only in its second year of existence. Since then, forecasting tropical cyclones and their impacts has improved thanks to advancements in technology and research.
“Communicating the threats – especially here in east central Florida as it relates to the tracks of Charley, Frances, Jeanne and Ivan in the Panhandle – back then we just didn’t know as much as we do now,” Will Ulrich said of the National Weather Service.
Ulrich is the Warning Coordination Meteorologist for the National Weather Service Office in Melbourne. Ulrich says errors in the forecast tracks of tropical cyclones in the early 2000s could be as large as 300 to 500 miles.
Ulrich states, “When you think of how large Florida is 250 miles or so from north to south, we’re basically not able to tell you where the storm center of a tropical cyclone is expected to go. Whether it is between Key West to Jacksonville that is a huge gap.”
Since the 2004 season, Ulrich explains, advancements in forecasting have allowed the range of error in the cone of uncertainty to be cut in half.
“The resolution of the satellites that we have in 2024 compared to what we had in the 2004 season is exponentially greater,“ Ulrich said.
Our understanding of forecasting hurricanes and their potential impacts has improved the accuracy of forecasts due to the advancements in weather observation instruments around the globe from the surface and from space.
“Whether is it is infrared imagery, whether it is visible or whether is it is precipitation estimates. Those are all things that satellites have been able to advance through the years and better understand the internal structure of a hurricane.”
These observations are allowing forecasters to better understand and communicate the potential storm risks to a community compared to 20 years ago.
Ulrich states, “We are now able to provide wind speed probability, time of arrival graphics, storm surge information are all new products that weren’t necessarily available in 2004.”
Even though there have been vast improvements in our ability predict and communicate the hazards of a storm, Ulrich says there is still more work that needs to be done.
“The fact is combining that track uncertainty with the intensity uncertainty, there is still a lot we don’t yet know and understand but it is getting better.” said Ulrich
Gilson is a meteorologist for Spectrum News 13, the Orlando Sentinel’s news partner.