Experts at Colorado State University revealed Thursday they’re expecting an above-average storm season with nine hurricanes and a better than 50% chance a major one will strike the United States.
The seasonal forecast points to warmer-than-normal waters in the eastern subtropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean as harbingers of an active season similar to 2024. The Atlantic season runs June 1-Nov. 30.
“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” forecast coauthor Michael Bell said.
CSU seasonal forecasts were originated by the late William Gray in 1984, but continue out of the school’s Department of Atmospheric Science, and are considered in meteorological circles among the most accurate in predicting tropical activity.
Also feeding a potentially busy season is the low chance of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific by the height of the season from mid-August to October — which translates to less chance of wind shear in the Atlantic. No wind shear means a greater chance storms won’t lose steam as they plow toward targets in the Caribbean and along the Gulf Coast and U.S. East Coast.
For those reasons, CSU forecasters expect 17 named storms — of which nine will become hurricanes. Of those four are predicted to reach major strength.
That’s slightly lower than 2024 and its 18 named storms, 11 of which became hurricanes, with five becoming major storms — Category 3 or stronger.
Those included hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton, all of which struck Florida’s Gulf Coast. Helene and Milton combined to cause at least 250 fatalities and more than $120 billion in U.S. damage.
The 30-year average from 1991-2020 saw 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 major ones.
The report also predicted landfall probabilities: a 51% chance a major hurricane will strike the U.S. coastline, noting the average from 1880-2020 was 43%.
The chances a major hurricane will hit the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, is 26%. The chances it will hit the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to the Texas-Mexico border is 33%. The chances of a strike in the Caribbean is 56%.
Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist and lead author of CSU’s forecast, said the year looks similar to what he calls “analog seasons” seen in 1996, 1999, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2017.
“Our analog seasons ranged from having slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane activity to being hyperactive,” Klotzbachsaid. “While the average of our analog seasons was above normal, the large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the high levels of uncertainty that typically are associated with our early April outlook.”
The forecast follows one released in March by AccuWeather that predicted up to six systems impacting the U.S. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration won’t release its prediction for the season until May.
CSU will update its forecast June 11, July 9 and Aug. 6.