The National Hurricane Center increased odds Thursday that a system brewing in the Atlantic off the Florida coast could develop into the season’s next tropical depression. Meanwhile, the season’s first named storm, Tropical Storm Alberto, lost steam after moving inland while drenching Mexico and Texas.
The Atlantic system as of the NHC’s 8 p.m. tropical outlook shows that shower activity associated with the area of low pressure located about 175 miles north-northeast of the northern Bahamas has become a little better organized during the past 24 hours. However, earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicated that the system does not have well-defined circulation.
“Environmental conditions remain marginally conducive for additional development and this system could become a tropical depression while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,” said NHC Warning Coordination Meteorologist Robbie Berg. “The system is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast early on Friday,and interests there should monitor the progress of the system.”
Another Air Force Reserve aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Friday morning, if necessary.
The NHC gave it a 50% chance of development in the next two to seven days.
The National Weather Service issued a high surf advisory that runs into Friday with breaking waves of 5 to 7 feet in the surf zone with a high rip current risk along coastal Central and Northeast Florida beaches.
“Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water,” warned the NWS.
Erosion will be greatest at high tide around 7 p.m. and 7 a.m., the NWS stated. Volusia County beaches are still recovering from major washout that occurred during both Hurricane Ian and Hurricane Nicole in 2022.
The NWS also has a small craft advisory in place from Jupiter Inlet north to the Altamaha Sound, Georgia that runs through late Friday for northeast Florida and through Friday morning for Central Florida.
Waves of 7 to 10 feet are expected offshore with 25-30 mph winds and gusts up to 35 mph farther north along Florida’s coast.
Rain chances are highest in Brevard and Volusia counties in Central Florida as the low approaches with some thunderstorm activity, the NWS stated.
Tropical Storm Alberto continues to churn tonight, bringing flooding rains to parts of Mexico and southern Texas. pic.twitter.com/licLdd97ns
— CIRA (@CIRA_CSU) June 20, 2024
As far as Tropical Storm Alberto goes, the system gained some wind speed as it dumped rainfall over Mexico and Texas but fell back in strength to become Tropical Depression Alberto by late morning and losing circulation by the afternoon.
In its 5 p.m. advisory, the remnants of Alberto were located about 260 miles west of Tampico, Mexico was located inland about 95 miles west of Tampico, Mexico and 380 miles southwest of Brownsville, Texas with sustained winds of 30 mph moving west at 24 mph. It had earlier Thursday maintained winds of 45 mph when it was a tropical storm.
All tropical storm warnings were halted by Thursday morning, but rainfall was still an issue in Mexico with 5 to 10 inches expected with some areas in higher terrain of inland Mexico getting up to 20 inches. Rain in Texas, though, dropped off quickly Thursday morning with only another 1 inch expected in some southern parts of the state, although storm surge of up to 4 feet plagued the Texas coast since Wednesday.
The NHC also continued forecasting the potential formation of a broad area of low pressure expected to form over southeastern Mexico and northern Central America on Friday.
“Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development after this system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and a tropical depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward,” forecasters said.
The NHC gave it a 20% chance of formation over the next two days and 50% in the next seven.
After Alberto, the next named system for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season would be Beryl.